Ex-Post Evaluation of Road Safety Regulations in Belgium Using Causal Inference Methods

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Assessing the Impact of the EU Cross Border Enforcement Directive and the 2022 Road Code Reform for Motorized Personal Mobility Devices

This project applies causal inference methods to assess the effectiveness of key road safety policies in Belgium.
Focusing on the EU Cross Border Enforcement Directive (2015) and e-scooter regulations (2022), it goes beyond simple before/after comparisons to identify true causal effects.
The results show modest but measurable safety improvements, including reduced crashes involving foreign vehicles and fewer e-scooter injuries after regulatory changes.


The study highlights both the benefits and limits of behavioural policies, and ultimately demonstrates the added value of causal methods for evidence-based policy evaluation.

 Accidents, Enforcement, New Urban Mobility (eg. E-steps), Policy & regulation, Safety, Victims
 Sinem Bas, Matthieu Billuart